This is a blog about me, Seinfeld, okonomiyaki, japanese toilet seats, and other things of interest

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

07:10: Restate my assumptions ...

# Mathematics is the language of nature.
# Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
# If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge.

In the latest issue of the Economist there is an article about MSI, the company that owns the Weather Channel. They also sell weather reports to weather dependent companies like airlines. Their latest business idea is to sell a forecast of the forecast released every day by the American met office for 90.000$ per year released one hour before the met office forecast. Observe that this is not a forecast of the weather but rather a prediction of how the met's office simulation of the weather works. Who would buy this kind of forecast? Not the weather dependent industries, as they are interested in the weather forecast and not the forecast of the weather forecast. The answer is investors that trade in weather dependent commodities like fuel. When more and more investors subscribe to the forecast of the forecast its value to investors becomes smaller and smaller. Thus, the next step would be the forecast of the forecast of the forecast that one hour earlier predicts the forecast of the forecast. I wonder how well this one predicts the real weather?

2 Comments:

Blogger RoboGeek said...

I think that maybe music is the language of nature, and mathematics is just another way to understand music.
Think vibrating strings and energy waves ...

Good to see you back BTW - look forward to loads of blog entries now you have more time on you hands ;)

2:39 AM

 
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